This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 58
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #306575
Title: Statistical Methods for Missing Partnership Data in HIV Transmission Research
Author(s): Ayn Leslie-Cook*+
Companies: University of Washington
Address: , , ,
Keywords: HIV ; prevalence ; Botswana ; concurrency ; network ; connectivity

The HIV epidemic is marked by large, persistent disparities in prevalence: global, regional and in contiguous subpopulations. One hypothesis for this is small differences in the rate of concurrent (overlapping) partnerships, which nonlinearly affect the cross-sectional connectivity and longitudinal reachability of the transmission network. The goal of this project is to estimate the rate of concurrency in Botswana, a country with extremely high HIV prevalence. Estimation is complicated by several types of missing data. We address this using an imputation approach to estimate the probability of concurrency, and validate the methods using 18 archival datasets. The estimates support the concurrency hypothesis: the prevalence of concurrency in Botswana, like the prevalence of HIV, is significantly higher than in other countries, and near the threshold for network connectivity.

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