This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 8
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Sunday, August 1, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Council of Chapters
Abstract - #306323
Title: Beetles, Beetles, Everywhere Beetles: Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Outbreaks of Mountain Pine Beetle
Author(s): Brian Aukema and Yanbing Zheng*+
Companies: Canadian Forest Service/Natural Resources Canada and University of Kentucky
Address: , , ,
Keywords: mountain pine beetle ; spatiotemporal regression ; spatial-temporal ; insect outbreaks ; landscape ecology
Abstract:

The mountain pine beetle, native to western North America, exists for long periods at endemic levels. Occasionally, it erupts to immense populations that may exert landscape-level mortality to mature pine forests. Currently, the province of British Columbia is experiencing an outbreak of mountain pine beetle that has been orders of magnitude larger than any previous outbreak in modern history. The insect has spread over an area of almost 15 million hectares in size, and exerts carbon budget impacts on the order of megatonnes. Recently, the insect has breached the historic geoclimatic barrier of the northwestern Rocky Mountains in British Columbia, posing a grave threat to previously unexposed jack pine forests that stretch eastward across Canada. In this paper, we present spatial-temporal models that provide inference and forecasts of beetle movement at the landscape scale.


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