Analysis of Global Warming Data: A Contrarian Data-Based View

• Activity Number: 486
• Type: Invited
• Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
• Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
• Author(s): Edward J. Wegman*+
• Companies: George Mason University
• Keywords: climate change ; global warming ; principal components ; hockey stick ; IPCC

Abstract

The so-called Hockey Stick paleoclimate temperature reconstruction was a major feature of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2003 Third Assessment Report. Drs. David Scott, Yasmin Said and I were asked to assemble a report to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce concerning the mathematical correctness of the principal components procedure that was used to develop the Hockey Stick. The principal components procedure was not done correctly and both empirical and theoretical analysis showed the flaws. While our testimony was limited to the statistical validity of this particular graphic, it was assumed by many and widely reported in the Press that we were arguing against anthropogenic-induced global warming. Indeed, politically motivated personal attacks were made. This talk will review the data issues and report on our experiences.