This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 648
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #306223
Title: Measuring Elusive Populations with Multiple Systems Estimation: A Case Study in Casanare
Author(s): Kristian Lum*+ and Megan Price and Patrick Ball
Companies: Duke University and Benetech and Benetech
Address: Box 90251, Durham, NC, 27708-0251,
Keywords: multiple systems estimation ; elusive populations ; bayesian model averaging
Abstract:

Research involving elusive populations often relies on convenience samples, which are susceptible to potential biases. Although any single dataset is likely to be unreliable, statistical methods that combine multiple data sources, such as multiple systems estimation, may still yield informative results. HRDAG has used MSE to count the number of homicides in a number of settings. This paper presents our most recent application of the method, to sixteen different data sources in Casanare. Due to the intractably large number of models that could represent the interactions between the data sources and the divergent results of models of comparable quality, we rely on Bayesian model averaging over all models applied to all partitions of the datasets. We also demonstrate how reliance on any one of these data sets would paint a highly inaccurate picture of lethal violations in Casanare.


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