This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 557
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: JASA, Applications and Case Studies
Abstract - #306070
Title: The Value of Multiproxy Reconstruction of Past Climate
Author(s): Bo Li*+ and Douglas Nychka and Caspar Ammann
Companies: Purdue University and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research
Address: , , 47907, USA
Keywords: Bayesian hierarchical model ; Forcings ; Global climate model ; Past temperature reconstruction ; Proxies
Abstract:

Understanding the dynamics of climate change in its full richness requires the knowledge of long temperature time series, which is however not available upon direct observation. Fortunately there are other forms of data, known as climate proxies, that can have a statistical relationship to temperature and have been used to infer temperatures in the past before direct measurements. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct past temperatures that enables to effectively integrate information from different sources. Additionally, this method allows us to rigorously quantify the uncertainty of the reconstruction. Via synthetic climate data from global climate models, our reconstruction method and the role of each different source is thoroughly assessed. These results can be a useful guideline for multi-proxy-based temperature reconstruction of the past.


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