This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 605
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Thursday, August 5, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #305978
Title: Improved Space-Time Forecasting of Next-Day Ozone Concentrations in the Eastern United States
Author(s): David Holland*+
Companies: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Address: 109 T. W. Alexander Drive, RTP, NC, 27711,
Keywords: Bayesian modeling ; Data fusion ; Hierarchical model ; Forecasting ; Air pollution
Abstract:

There is an urgent need to provide accurate air quality information and forecasts to the general public. A hierarchical space-time model is used to forecast next day spatial patterns of daily maximum 8-hr ozone concentrations. The model combines ozone monitoring data and gridded forecast output from the Eta Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) forecast model in a flexible, efficient way so that next day forecasts can be computed in a real-time operational mode. The model adjusts for bias in the Eta CMAQ forecasts and avoids the change of support problem often encountered where monitoring data are observed at points, but forecasts from a computer model are provided at grid cell levels. The model is validated using set-aside data and is shown to provide improved forecasts of daily ozone concentrations in the eastern United States.


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