This is the program for the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Abstract Details

Activity Number: 102
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Monday, August 2, 2010 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics and the Environment
Abstract - #305941
Title: Testing for Possible Climate Change--Caused Shifts in Forest Fire Ignitions
Author(s): Charmaine Dean and Douglas Woolford*+ and Jiguo Cao and David Martell
Companies: Simon Fraser University and Wilfrid Laurier University and Simon Fraser University and University of Toronto
Address: , Waterloo, ON, N2L3C5, Canada
Keywords: generalized additive model ; mixture model ; nonparametric smoothing ; forestry ; wildfire ignitions ; climate change
Abstract:

We propose a mixture model framework to investigate climate change signals in historical records on forest fire ignitions for Ontario, Canada. A three-component mixture of logistic generalized additive models is employed, with components reflecting the zero-heavy, seasonal and extreme nature present in the data. Models with fixed and non-linear mixing weights are compared. The modelling framework, a discussion of model selection, and a test statistic for increasing extremes in ignitions are presented. Seasonal and annual changes in ignition risk are observed and discussed. Potential confounding factors are noted and examined.


The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.

Back to the full JSM 2010 program




2010 JSM Online Program Home

For information, contact jsm@amstat.org or phone (888) 231-3473.

If you have questions about the Continuing Education program, please contact the Education Department.