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Activity Number: 130
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Business and Economic Statistics Section
Abstract - #305553
Title: Recession Statistics 101
Author(s): Les Yen and Heather Posey*+
Companies: University of Phoenix and University of Phoenix/NVA
Address: , , ,
Keywords: Economic recessions ; Real gross domestic product ; Correlation ; Causality
Abstract:

Opinions vary as to the definition of recession. Some economists define a recession as a period of decline in real gross domestic product (R-GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more quarters of a year. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines economic "as a significant decline in the economic activity spread across the economy...normally visible in R-GDP growth, real personal income, employment, industrial production...." Since 1970 R-GDP has declined in six periods including the current recession. In this paper we examine the trend of R-GDP growth and the past and present recessions in terms of both intensity and duration. We identify and compare the causes and effects of recessions, and discuss various strategies for moving out of a recession.

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