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Activity Number:
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284
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Survey Research Methods
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| Abstract - #304645 |
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Title:
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Bayes Model for Inference on Vehicular Traffic Density at the Main Campus of University of Lagos
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Author(s):
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Ray Okafor*+ and A. I. Opara and Rotimi Ogundeji and Ugochukwu Mbata
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Companies:
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University of Lagos and University of Lagos and University of Lagos and University of Lagos
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Address:
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Department of Mathematics, Akoka, Lagos, 9600001, Nigeria
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Keywords:
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Empirical Bayes ; Vehicular Traffic Density ; Proportion ; Moment Estimation ; Shrinkage Estimator ; University of Lagos
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Abstract:
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This article highlights yet another application of empirical Bayes estimation. The empirical Bayes (EB) approach for parameter estimation has the capacity to yield more precise estimates than methods based on sampling theory. It can give sensible results in situations where sampling theory falters. It is this desirable property that has motivated this application in estimating indicators of vehicular traffic density (i.e. proportion of students who use personal motor vehicles) at the main campus of the University of Lagos (UNILAG for short). The EB estimator of a proportion P is the shrinkage estimator which is a weighted average of the prior proportion estimator and the sample proportion estimator. The EB estimator has smaller variance and very narrow confidence intervals than sample theory estimators.
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