JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2009 Joint Statistical Meetings in Washington, DC.

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Activity Number: 238
Type: Roundtables
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 7:00 AM to 8:15 AM
Sponsor: Section on Health Policy Statistics
Abstract - #305684
Title: Predictive Modeling of Health Care Outcomes for Underwriting and Disease Management: Industry's Lessons, Trends, Comparative Studies
Author(s): Ognian K. Asparouhov*+
Companies: MEDAI, Inc.
Address: 4901 Vineland Rd., Ste. 450, Orlando, FL, 32811,
Keywords: predcitive modeling ; health-care outcomes ; industry experience ; comparative studies ; recently developed models ; future models
Abstract:

Predictive Modeling (PM) has been used for more than 10 years in health insurance industry for disease management and underwriting purposes. In this roundtable, we will consider different applications of PM for prediction of: different components of the cost (total, acute, Rx, etc.); inpatient admission, emergency room visits; specific diseases' future complications as a main reason for high future cost; impactable members; employer group's cost (small group renewal underwriting); ROI (acute and chronic components). The results of a few comparative studies with large real data sets (with hundred of thousands or more than a million of members) will be presented. We will discuss as well the clients' experience about how is PM being used in health insurance (underwriting and disease management) today? We will briefly discuss some industry trends: recently developed and future models.


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