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Activity Number:
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285
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Health Policy Statistics
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| Abstract - #305682 |
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Title:
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Predicting Wound Deterioration in Home Health Care Patients
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Author(s):
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Iordan Slavov*+ and Carlin Brickner
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Companies:
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Visiting Nurse Service of New York and Visiting Nurse Service of New York
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Address:
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Center for Home Care Policy and Research, New York, NY, 10001,
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Keywords:
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home health care policy ; predicting wound deterioration ; survival analysis ; competing risks
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Abstract:
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Medicare spending on hospitalizations for wound related problems doubled from 2000 to 2005, and the health care industry sees home health care as an important component in a patient's wound treatment. In June 2008 The Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released risk adjusted models for predicting the improvement in the status of surgical wounds. We explored several approaches to modeling wound deterioration in a large population of 2007 home health care patients. A wide variety of data sources were used including the CMS mandated Outcome and Assessment Information Set, medication counts, payer eligibility, and the clinician's plan of care for the patient. A competing risks model showed the best potential to isolate the factors critical to identifying patients at most risk of wound deterioration upon admission to care. Implications for health care policy are discussed.
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