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Activity Number:
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133
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Sports
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| Abstract - #305652 |
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Title:
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Determination and Analysis of Factors Determining the Outcomes of National Football League Games
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Author(s):
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Christopher Cohea and Mark E. Payton*+
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Companies:
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CEC Statistical Consulting and Oklahoma State University
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Address:
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301 MSCS Building, Stillwater, OK, 74078,
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Keywords:
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Sports ; NFL ; Logistic ; Regression ; Factor ; Analysis
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Abstract:
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The outcome of a National Football League (NFL) game depends on numerous in-game variables. The statistical method of logistic regression is employed to assist in understanding the relative importance of over 50 collected variables observed during a single game. A sample of 534 NFL games from 2006 and 2007 is used for the analysis---one team's statistics are randomly chosen for each game in the sample and utilized for regression analysis. Factor analysis is employed to determine if a set of underlying characteristics exist that drives the values of the measured variables. The factors are named according to their perceived football-specific characteristics and used as predictor variables in logistic regression analysis. Game outcome predictions are also of interest and explored with both the logistic model with factors and the logistic model with the original variables.
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