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Activity Number: 132
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #305560
Title: Improving Predictions of Dwarf Mistletoe Incidence in Black Spruce Using Bayesian Hierarchical Models
Author(s): Ephraim Hanks*+ and Mevin B. Hooten and Frederick A. Baker
Companies: Utah State University and Utah State University and Utah State University
Address: 3900 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT, 84322-3900,
Keywords: Hierarchical Models ; Ecological Modeling
Abstract:

Dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium americanum) kills millions of trees each year in the U.S. This parasite has been estimated to be present in over 19% of all Black Spruce stands nationwide, but a Minnesota state survey of over 46,000 stands of Black Spruce reports Dwarf Mistletoe in only 10% of surveyed stands. A separate survey of 128 of the stands surveyed by the DNR found mistletoe present in 64% of these stands. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model that allows us to connect these disparate sources of data in an effort to predict mistletoe incidence in Minnesota.

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