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Activity Number:
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218
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #305541 |
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Title:
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Tree-Ring--Based Climate Reconstruction
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Author(s):
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Matthew Schofield*+ and Richard Barker
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Companies:
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Columbia University and University of Otago
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Address:
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1255 Amsterdam Avenue, Room 927, New York, NY, 10025,
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Keywords:
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Climate Reconstruction
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Abstract:
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The study of climate change is inhibited by the availability of data. Direct observations for most climate variables are only available for the past century or two. To overcome this problem climate proxies with many more observations, such as tree-rings, ice-cores and coral are used to predict historical climate observations. We investigate the assumptions and limitations of current methods used to reconstruct climate using tree-rings as a proxy. In response to these limitations, we propose a hierarchical model-based approach. We are able to include assumptions similar to those used in the current methods as well as many other potentially more realistic assumptions. We compare predictions from various models and discuss some of the challenges with the model-based approach.
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