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Activity Number:
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78
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 2, 2009 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Biopharmaceutical Section
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| Abstract - #305404 |
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Title:
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Now You See It, Now You Don't: Impact of Population Screening Practices on Perceived Efficacy of Cancer Therapies
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Author(s):
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Margaret A. Au*+ and Ruth Etzioni
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Companies:
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University of Washington and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
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Address:
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F-600, Health Sciences Building, Seattle, WA, 98195-7232,
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Keywords:
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Clinical Trials ; Screening ; Cancer
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Abstract:
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Many cancer treatment trials are conducted in unscreened populations. As cancer screening becomes more prevalent the validity of these trial results in the presence of screening becomes uncertain. This manuscript evaluates the impact of screening on treatment efficacy estimates. We develop expressions for cause-specific cumulative incidence in the presence of screening. We use these to simulate results under different settings of lead time, overdiagnosis, treatment efficacy, and other-cause survival. Under screening, efficacy estimates are markedly reduced. We show that under screening patterns observed in the US, radical prostatectomy reduces cumulative incidence of prostate cancer death by 40%, but that in screened populations that reduction can be as low as 20%. We also find the NNT increases from 48 to as high as 194 in screened populations.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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