|
Activity Number:
|
425
|
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Wednesday, August 5, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Health Policy Statistics
|
| Abstract - #305364 |
|
Title:
|
Sensitivity Analysis Using Probabilistic Simulation Methods: An Application to the Health Economics of Stable Coronary Disease
|
|
Author(s):
|
Zugui Zhang*+ and Paul Kolm and William S. Weintraub
|
|
Companies:
|
Christiana Care Health System and Christiana Care Health System and Christiana Care Health System
|
|
Address:
|
131 Continental Drive, Suite 202, Newark, DE, 19713,
|
|
Keywords:
|
Monto Carlo simulation ; Sensitivity Analysis ; Probabilistic Simulation Methods ; Health Economics ; risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary disease ; Quality Adjusted Life Years
|
|
Abstract:
|
Traditional sensitivity analysis in health economics has difficulty with simultaneous changes of all variables. However, a Monte Carlo simulation provides much more information. We performed Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation in economic analysis of COURAGE trial, comparing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) plus optimal medical therapy (OMT) to OMT alone in reducing the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with stable coronary disease. The probabilities of effectiveness were derived from cardiovascular studies, and the distributions of the cost data were based on the actual data. The differences in QALY (Quality Adjusted Life Years) and mean cost between the two groups were derived. The results reveal the comprehensive changes of the QALYs and the mean cost difference for the PCI group compared to OMT, with their associated uncertainty.
|
