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Activity Number:
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218
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #305260 |
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Title:
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Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling for Paleoclimate Reconstruction from Geothermal Data
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Author(s):
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Jenny Brynjarsdottir*+ and L. Mark Berliner
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Companies:
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The Ohio State University and The Ohio State University
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Address:
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1958 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH, 43210,
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Keywords:
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Abstract:
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We present a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to temperature reconstruction from borehole temperature-depth profiles. This approach relies on modeling of heat conduction in solids and using the solution to the heat equation with a step function as a boundary condition. The hierarchical modeling enables us to separate the variability of measurement error and the error associated with the approximation inherent in the physical model. We also allow for layered sedimentary rocks using prior knowledge of different thermal conductivities. We apply our method to data from eight borehole temperatures from the Colorado Plateau and produce temperature histories with uncertainty estimates, going back 400 years.
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