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Activity Number:
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383
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
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| Abstract - #304726 |
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Title:
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Evaluation of Procedures to Estimate Unconventional Natural Gas Resources When Spatial Trends Are Present
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Author(s):
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Emil D. Attanasi*+ and Timothy C. Coburn
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Companies:
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U.S. Geological Survey and Abilene Christian University
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Address:
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12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA, 20192-0002,
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Keywords:
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unconventional natural gas resources ; nonparametric spatial prediction ; Tomczak transformation ; bootstrap ; jackknife ; cross-validation
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Abstract:
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Nonparametric prediction models have previously been used to compute site specific and regional estimates natural gas volumes at untested sites in continuous-type (unconventional) shale gas plays. In particular, these procedures used a combination of cross-validation for model selection, the jackknife for capturing site uncertainty, and the bootstrap for capturing uncertainty in the regional estimates. Previous simulation studies showed that, in the presence of a geologic trend, a transformation proposed by Tomczak (1998) offers an improvement in the mean square error performance when the trend is not severely mis-specified. This presentation (1) broadens evaluation of the prediction models beyond mean square error to assess the usefulness of the transformation in the context of strategic drilling decisions and (2) considers the methods and associated costs needed to identify trends.
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