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Activity Number:
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130
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economic Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #304609 |
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Title:
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Modeling Hourly Real-Time Electricity Load in the MISO Market
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Author(s):
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Prasenjit Shil*+ and V. A. Samaranayake and Asitha Edirisingha
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Companies:
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Ameren Services and Missouri University of Science and Technology and Missouri University of Science and Technology
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Address:
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, St. Louis, MO, 63166,
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Keywords:
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Seasonal time series ; high frequency data ; unobserved component models ; principal components
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Abstract:
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Understanding the behavior of real-time electricity load for a given region is crucial for the effective planning for the delivery of power. This paper estimates a "Nowcasting" model for the hourly observed real-time electricity load across the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator's (MISO) footprint. The model incorporate cyclical, seasonal and other patterns observed in the market data as well as provide a mechanism to incorporate stochastic variations that impact the process. An unobserved component model with a set of regression variables and serially correlated errors is used in nowcasting real-time hourly load. The regressors employed include principal components of different weather variables across the MISO footprint and the model takes into account the differing electric consumption patterns during week days and weekends as well as holidays.
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