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Activity Number: 171
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2009 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #304288
Title: A Spatio-Temporal Transmission Model to Model the Spread of Bluetongue in Europe
Author(s): Christel Faes*+ and Marc Aerts
Companies: Hasselt University and Hasselt University
Address: Agoralaan 1, Diepenbeek, 3590, Belgium
Keywords: spatio-temporal model ; infectious disease ; Bluetongue virus ; distance transmission model
Abstract:

Bluetongue serotype 8 was introduced into North-West Europe in 2006 and spread to several European countries, affecting mainly sheep and cattle. To understand the dynamics of the disease, it is of interest to investigate the spatio-temporal spread of BTV-8 using spatial transmission models. A distance transmission model accounting for important farm-specific and environmental risk factors, such as the number of animals held by the farm, the temperature, precipitation, wind direction and land use is being considered. Also the population heterogeneity coming from the unequal distribution of farms in space has an important effect on the analysis. Based on this model, the force of infection and reproduction rate, two important parameters describing the dynamics of the disease, are estimated, and also the impact of intervention strategies on the spread of the disease is assessed.

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