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Activity Number:
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383
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences
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| Abstract - #303912 |
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Title:
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A Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Climate Modeling based on the Solar-Terrestrial Relationship
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Author(s):
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Elizabeth Martínez-Gómez*+ and Victor M. Guerrero and Francisco Estrada
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Companies:
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National Autonomous University of Mexico and Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México and Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera
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Address:
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Circuito de la Investigación Científica S/N, Mexico, International, 04510, Mexico
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Keywords:
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time series ; solar-terrestrial relationship ; VAR methodology ; climate
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Abstract:
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Space weather may, in the long term, affect the Earth's climate (although its most important impact may be in the short term, that is, on weather). Solar UV, visible and heat radiation are the key factors for the climate (including global average temperatures) and these energy sources appear to be quite constant over time. In many works, the association between the Sun and the terrestrial environment is found through some type of correlation based on multivariate statistics or using techniques like the wavelet coherence method to find possible periodicities between the solar activity and the climate parameters. In the present work we use the time series analysis to find a multivariate model that can explain the relation between the Sun and some major climate phenomena. Each system is treated separately and a Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is proposed and then estimated.
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