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Activity Number: 606
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Thursday, August 6, 2009 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: Biometrics Section
Abstract - #303707
Title: Using Relative Utility Curves to Evaluate Risk Prediction
Author(s): Stuart Baker*+
Companies: National Cancer Institute
Address: , , 20892,
Keywords: ROC curve ; prediction ; decision-making
Abstract:

Because many medical decisions are based on risk prediction models constructed from medical history and results of tests, the evaluation of these prediction models is important. A basic premise is that proper evaluation of risk prediction models requires consideration of costs and benefits. The relative utility curve is a simple method for evaluating risk prediction using a minimal amount of information on costs and benefits. In addition, because relative utility is the ratio of the utility of the prediction model to the utility of perfect prediction, the relative utility curve provides an important perspective on the value of risk prediction models. Various examples will be discussed.


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