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Activity Number: 133
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #303679
Title: National Football League Regular Season Team Statistics vs. Winning Performance and Playoff Level Success: A Multivariate Exploratory Analysis
Author(s): Charles Fisk*+
Companies: U.S. Department of Defense
Address: 590 Gilbert Street, Newbury Park, CA, 91320,
Keywords: National Football League Team Statistics ; Exploratory Analysis ; Multiple Regression ; Logistic Regression ; Winning Performance Prediction
Abstract:

Employing a methodology utilized by Fisk (1996) in studying NBA regular seasons team wins as a function of offensive and defensive team statistics, a multivariate exploratory analysis of NFL regular season wins is conducted on data for the 1970-2008 seasons. The team data are standardized by season and combined into a single data set of 1125 cases. Standardized wins are fitted to various standardized offensive less defensive team rushing, passing, turnover, and field goal statistics, and from multicollinearity and other considerations, the independent variable selection is reduced to seven predictors. Logistic regression functions are also fitted, providing empirical probabilities of achieving the playoffs along with the Super Bowl, regular season standardized scores of the explanatories serving as input.

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