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Activity Number:
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610
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 6, 2009 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Business and Economic Statistics Section
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| Abstract - #303607 |
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Title:
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Border Region Municipal Water Consumption Forecast Accuracy
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Author(s):
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Angel L. Molina, Jr.*+ and Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.
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Companies:
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The University of Texas at El Paso and The University of Texas at El Paso
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Address:
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COBA - Department of Economics & Finance, El Paso, TX, 79968-0543,
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Keywords:
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Applied Econometrics ; Forecast Accuracy ; Regional Econometrics ; Water Consumption ; International Border ; Mexico
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Abstract:
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The metropolitan economies of El Paso, USA; Ciudad Juarez, Mexico; and Chihuahua City, Mexico are all located in a semi-arid region that has experienced fairly strong economic growth in recent years. Economic and demographic expansion in these markets has translated into increased demand for municipal water services. Consequently, analysts in all three metropolitan economies must plan carefully for future grid expansions. This effort evaluates the historical accuracy of previously published municipal water consumption forecasts that were generated using a structural econometric model. Model coverage includes eighteen separate water consumption categories. Various methods are employed in assessing the relative performance of the econometric model forecasts against random walk and random walk with drift benchmarks. Results indicate limited success of the structural model forecasts.
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