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Activity Number:
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67
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Sunday, August 2, 2009 : 4:00 PM to 5:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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International Chinese Statistical Association
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| Abstract - #303489 |
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Title:
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China in the World Economy: Dynamic Correlation Analysis of Business Cycles
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Author(s):
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Jarko Fidrmuc*+ and Iikka Korhonen and Ivana Batorova
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Companies:
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University of Munich and Bank of Finland and Comenius University Bratislava
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Address:
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Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, Munich, 80539 , Germany
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Keywords:
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Business cycles ; synchronization ; dynamic correlation ; trade ; FDI
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Abstract:
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We analyze the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006 using dynamic correlation analysis. We show that dynamic correlations of business cycles of OECD countries and China are negative at the business cycle frequencies and positive for the short-run developments. Furthermore, trade and financial flows of OECD countries and China lower the degree of business cycle synchronization within the OECD area especially at the business cycle frequencies. Thus, a deeper integration of China to the world economy results in less synchronized business cycles as discussed originally by Krugman (1993).
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