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Activity Number: 133
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #303397
Title: Predicting the Atlanta Falcons Play-Calling Using Discriminant Analysis
Author(s): Erik L. Heiny*+ and David Blevins
Companies: Utah Valley University and Gaston Community College
Address: 800 West University Parkway, Orem, UT, 84058-5999,
Keywords: discriminant ; analysis ; NFL
Abstract:

This study investigated the ability of discriminant analysis to predict the offensive play-calling of the 2005 Atlanta Falcons. Independent variables included game location, down, yards to go, field position, score, offensive formation, opponent's defensive rank, weather and field surface. The response variable was categorized into either a short pass, medium pass, long pass, run, or scramble. A linear discriminant function was developed to predict play-calling. Based on a cross validation procedure, the model was able to correctly predict the play called 31.55% of the time. While this rate is not high, the model was able to predict each play with greater accuracy than the relative frequency that each play was run. Considering that the Falcons coaches said they only use frequencies, the use of discriminant analysis is an intriguing possibility for NFL coaches.

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