Trends in Early Childhood Vaccination Coverage: Progress Toward U.S. Healthy People 2010 Goals

• Activity Number: 567
• Type: Contributed
• Date/Time: Thursday, August 6, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
• Sponsor: Section on Government Statistics
• Author(s): Zhen Zhao*+ and Philip J. Smith and Elizabeth T. Luman
• Companies: CDC and CDC and CDC
• Keywords: Healthy People 2010 ; Childhood Immunization ; Vaccination ; Trends ; Prediction

Abstract

We evaluated trends in national vaccination coverage from 2000--2007 among children aged 19--35 months for the 6 universally recommended vaccines and the standard vaccine series, and predicted vaccination coverage levels in 2008--2010 for those vaccines that have not yet reached the Healthy People 2010 targets. We used the most recently available National Immunization Survey 2000-2007 data. Vaccination coverage trends were analyzed with weighted least squares linear regression models. Weibull and logarithmic regression models were fitted and extrapolated to predict vaccination coverage levels for 4+DTaP, 1+Var, and the 4:3:1:3:3:1 series from 2008--2010. From 2000--2007, observed vaccination coverage reached the 90% target for 3+Polio, 1+MMR, 3+Hib, and 3+HepB. Both Weibull and logarithmic regression models predicted that coverage with 4+DTaP will fall short of the target at 86% in 2010.