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Abstract:
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The performance of matched sampling is assessed using data from the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. The assumptions necessary for the validity of matched sampling, including ignorability, are described. With a matching ratio of about five, the matched sample reproduces the joint demographic distribution of the target population very closely. The sampling distribution of the associated state-level vote estimates is approximately standard normal with unit variance, suggesting little or no selection bias conditional upon a full set of demographic controls. The results are compared to RDD telephone and Internet samples, none of which are clearly better and some (such as the 2008 ANES Internet panel) are substantially worse.
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