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Activity Number:
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92
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #303188 |
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Title:
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Statistical Issues in Regionalization of Climate Models
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Author(s):
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Mark S. Kaiser*+ and Gene Takle
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Companies:
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Iowa State University and Iowa State University
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Address:
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Dept. of Statistics, Ames, IA, 50011-1210,
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Keywords:
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Climate models ; Characterizing uncertainty
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Abstract:
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As we continue to assess the effects of global climate change on the Earth's environment, the effort has intensified to develop regional climate models that produce output on a finer scale of resolution than typical of models used to assess climate on a continental scale. A major question for meteorologists involved in the development of regional climate models is the manner in which uncertainty in the outputs of general circulation models propagates into uncertainty in regional models. Statistically, the attempt to quantify uncertainty in regional climate models is now being approached by more than estimation of variance terms. Among the statistical questions that arise in these efforts are the exact meaning of uncertainty, the effects of aggregation and/or disaggregation of data, and how one might quantify the distribution of sample paths from stochastic models of climate.
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