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Abstract:
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National health policy is increasingly driven by quantitative analyses. These analyses are used to advocate or oppose policy changes, to estimate the costs of the initiative, and to implement the chosen option. Examples will be drawn from proposals for universal health insurance, expansion of home care for people with disabilities, and Medicare payment and quality measures. Many of these analyses draw on surveys and statistical techniquest to adjust for patient characteristics. All too often, however, uncertainty is ignored and the illusion of precision dominates. Emphasis will be on the use and misuse of statistical analyses, with suggestions on how statisticians can better communicate with policymakers.
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