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Activity Number:
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92
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 3, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #303017 |
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Title:
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Modeling of Precipitation Extremes from Regional Climate Models
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Author(s):
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Daniel Cooley*+ and Stephan R. Sain
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Companies:
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Colorado State University and National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Address:
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Department of Statistics, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1877,
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Keywords:
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extremes ; precipitation ; regional climate model ; climate change ; heavy tails
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Abstract:
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The aim of this work is to characterize the extreme precipitation produced by a regional climate model. For this purpose, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model which assumes the parameters of the extreme value distribution are characterized by a latent spatial process. Specifically, the data level is formed by the point process representation of extremes, and the process level is based on a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model since our data are on a regular lattice. We simultaneously model the data from both a control and future run of the RCM which allows for easy inference about projected change. Our hierarchical model shows that for the winter season, the RCM indicates a general increase in 100-year precipitation return levels for most of the study region. For the summer season, the RCM surprisingly indicates a significant decrease in the 100-year return level.
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