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Activity Number: 397
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2009 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security
Abstract - #302902
Title: Computer Model Validation: Issues with BTRA
Author(s): David Banks*+
Companies: Duke University
Address: Department of Statistical Science, Durham, NC, 27708,
Keywords: bioterrorism ; validation ; decision theory
Abstract:

The Department of Homeland Security contracted with Battelle to produce a computer model that would output a ranked list of bioterrorist threats. That model was complex and difficult to validate, but has been viewed by DHS as one of the exemplary tools in their decision-making. This talk reviews issues that arise in building, testing, and using such a system, especially with respect to use of expert opinion, model checking, and end-user value.

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