|
Activity Number:
|
346
|
|
Type:
|
Invited
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Tuesday, August 4, 2009 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
IMS
|
| Abstract - #302794 |
|
Title:
|
Functional ANOVA Models for Comparing Sources of Variability in Climate Model Output
|
|
Author(s):
|
Cari Kaufman*+ and Stephan R. Sain
|
|
Companies:
|
University of California, Berkeley and National Center for Atmospheric Research
|
|
Address:
|
367 Evans Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720,
|
|
Keywords:
|
climate ; functional data ; spatial data ; Bayesian statistics
|
|
Abstract:
|
Functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) models partition a functional response according to the main effects and interactions of various factors. Motivated by the question of how to compare the sources of variability in climate models run under various conditions, we develop a general framework for functional ANOVA modeling from a Bayesian viewpoint, assigning Gaussian process prior distributions to each batch of functional effects. We discuss computationally efficient strategies for posterior sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and we emphasize useful graphical summaries based on the posterior distribution of model-based analogues of the traditional ANOVA decompositions of variance. We present a case study using these methods to analyze data from the Prudence Project, a climate model inter-comparison study providing ensembles of climate projections over Europe.
|
- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
Back to the full JSM 2009 program |
