JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2009 Joint Statistical Meetings in Washington, DC.

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Activity Number: 449
Type: Invited
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 5, 2009 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
Sponsor: WNAR
Abstract - #302774
Title: A Bayesian Theory of Surprise for Modeling Attention Mechanisms in Natural and Artificial Perceptual Systems: Application to Eye Movements
Author(s): Pierre Baldi*+
Companies: University of California, Irvine
Address: Dept. of Computer Science, Irvine, CA, 92697-3435,
Keywords:
Abstract:

The concept of surprise is central to sensory processing, attention, decision making, learning and adaptation. We introduce a Bayesian definition of surprise by measuring the difference between prior and posterior distributions. Surprise can be computed efficiently for distributions in the exponential family and decreases like 1/N during learning. We apply the surprise framework to predict human gaze shifts under natural conditions. Humans are strongly attracted to locations of high Bayesian surprise, with 72% of all human gaze shifts directed towards locations more surprising than the average, a figure which rises to 84% when considering gaze targets simultaneously selected by multiple observers. The theory of surprise is applicable across different spatio-temporal scales, modalities, and levels of abstraction.


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Revised September, 2008