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Activity Number: 312
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Tuesday, August 5, 2008 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #302446
Title: Election Prediction Using the Kalman Filter
Author(s): Steven Rigdon*+ and Michael Siekerka and Christopher J. Rigdon
Companies: Southern Illinois University Edwardsville and Southern Illinois University Edwardsville and Arizona State University
Address: 1333 Science Building, Edwardsville, IL, 62026,
Keywords: Election polls ; survey sample ; Kalman filter
Abstract:

The Kalman filter is used to monitor the current state of the electorate in each state. This information, together with a dynamic algorithm for obtaining the posterior probability distribution of the number of electoral votes for each candidate, will be used to track the posterior probability that each candidate will win the November 2008 election.

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