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Activity Number:
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242
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, August 5, 2008 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
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| Abstract - #302258 |
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Title:
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Geotemporal Spread of Influenza A in Canada and United States
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Author(s):
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Dena L. Schanzer*+ and Trevor Dummer and Joanne Langley and Samina Aziz and Brian Winchester and Theresa Tam
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Companies:
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Public Health Agency of Canada and Dalhousie University and Dalhousie University and Public Health Agency of Canada and Public Health Agency of Canada and Public Health Agency of Canada
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Address:
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100 Eglantine Driveway, Ottawa, ON, K1A 0K9, Canada
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Keywords:
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public health policy ; disease transmission ; geo-temporal ; mapping ; influenza ; epidemiology
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Abstract:
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A better understanding of the spread of annual influenza epidemics is considered key to pandemic planning. Based on weekly reports of laboratory confirmed influenza (FluWatch, Canada and CDC Flu, US) plus other Canadian data with finer spatial details, we characterized the geotemporal spread of influenza over the 1997/98-2005/06 period at various geographic scales. A composite epidemic curve was created by centering local epidemics relative to their epidemic mid-point. The epidemic growth rates as well as differences in regional timing were compared. Variation in direction of spread suggests that it is unlikely that travel alone is responsible for the dynamics of influenza transmission. Influenza appears to be geographically widespread early in the epidemic, and the annual epidemic likely starts independently in multiple regions. The epidemic starts in the fall though peaks in winter.
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