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Abstract:
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This presentation extends the results of an earlier investigation of the use of local nonparametric prediction models for estimating the remaining volumes of hydrocarbon resources at untested locations, with particular reference to continuous-type natural gas plays. Previous work determined that an approach that marries cross-validation, jackknife, and bootstrap procedures yields reliable estimates of regional totals as well as the amounts at localized individual sites. However, no underlying spatial trend was assumed. The present study incorporates an adjustment proposed by Tomczak in 1998 to account for the presence of a regional spatial trend in the subsurface. Simulation indicates there is, indeed, an overall improvement in the mean square errors associated with competing methods, but that the ranking of these approaches in terms of predictive performance is not altered.
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