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Abstract:
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We applied the statistical methods developed by Wu, Rosner and Broemeling 2005, 2007 using the Minnesota colorectal cancer data, to make Bayesian inference for the age-dependent sensitivity, transition probability, sojourn time distribution, and lead time distribution, for both genders in a periodic screening program. The sensitivity appears to increase with age for both genders. However, the posterior mean sensitivity is not monotonic for males; it has a peak around age 74. The age-dependent transition probability is not a monotone function of age; it has a single maximum at age 72 for males and a single maximum at age 75 for females. The posterior mean sojourn time is 4.08 years for males and 2.41 years for females. To guarantee a 90% chance of early detection, it seems necessary for the males to take the test every 9 months, while the females only need to take it annually.
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