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Activity Number:
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368
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Wednesday, August 6, 2008 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #301301 |
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Title:
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Bayesian Hierarchical Models for the Lower Trophic Ecosystem in the North Pacific Ocean
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Author(s):
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Christopher Wikle*+ and Ralph Milliff
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Companies:
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University of Missouri-Columbia and Northwest Research Associates, Inc.
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Address:
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, , MO, 65211,
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Keywords:
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ocean ; ecosystem ; dynamical ; nonlinear ; hierarchical
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Abstract:
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A wide variety of physical-biological models of varying complexity have been developed for components of the U.S. West Coast upwelling ecosystem. Such a physical-biological interface is effective for demonstrating high-resolution properties of phytoplankton bloom and zooplankton population dynamical response. We develop a simple (nitrogen, phytoplankton, zooplankton) stochastic model in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. The underlying system is multivariate and highly nonlinear. The model is applied to the upwelling region of the North Pacific and demonstrates the interplay between model formulation, data, and interpretation of posterior distributions in relatively simple stochastic models for a complicated physical-biological system. Ultimately, such models can be used for pan-regional syntheses and climate change impact studies for coastal ocean ecosystems.
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- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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