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Activity Number:
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470
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 7, 2008 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Risk Analysis
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| Abstract - #300828 |
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Title:
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Business Process-Based Risk Analysis for Enterprise Risk Management
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Author(s):
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Bonnie Ray*+ and Lea Deleris and Christian Toft-Nielsen and Mihir Shah
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Companies:
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IBM T. J. Watson Research Center and IBM T. J. Watson Research Center and IBM Business Performance Services and IBM Business Performance Services
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Address:
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1101 Kitchawan Rd, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598,
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Keywords:
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Bayesian networks ; enterprise risk management ; business process
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Abstract:
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A key component of enterprise risk management is the ability to systematically identify risks and understand their impacts across an enterprise. From a business perspective, linking risk identification to business process models provides an organizing structure for understanding and quantifying risk interdependencies and their effects. In this paper, we present a formal model for linking risks to business processes and show how the model can be used to provide quantitative analysis for risk mitigation investment decision making under uncertainty. The underlying model is based on the concept of Bayesian networks, expanded to incorporate elements of business process maps. The model and analysis are illustrated using a tool developed to aid in risk assessment for IBM's businesses in emerging markets.
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