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Activity Number:
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139
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 4, 2008 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistical Computing
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| Abstract - #300730 |
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Title:
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Judging a Model of an Experiment
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Author(s):
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Robert Blodgett*+
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Companies:
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U.S. Food and Drug Administration
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Address:
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5100 Paint Branch Parkway, College Park, MD, 20740,
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Keywords:
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Goodness of fit ; imporb ; rarity index ; order statistics
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Abstract:
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Unexpected and unplanned events like lab errors can occur during scientific experiments of measurements. When they occur, a model ignoring them can be very inaccurate. Two diagnostic tools are compared. One is improb which equals the sum of probabilities of all outcomes as likely as or less likely than the actual outcome. The second is a rarity index which equals the probability of the actual outcome divided by the probability of the most likely outcome.
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