JSM Preliminary Online Program
This is the preliminary program for the 2008 Joint Statistical Meetings in Denver, Colorado.

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Activity Number: 453
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 6, 2008 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
Sponsor: Section on Statistics in Sports
Abstract - #300551
Title: Contracts and Performance in Major League Baseball
Author(s): Elaine Allen*+ and Julia Seaman
Companies: Babson College and Pomona College
Address: Arthur M Blank Center for Entrepreneurship, Babson Park, MA, 02457,
Keywords: baseball ; data mining ; contract year ; batting performance
Abstract:

A baseball player's day-to-day performance is largely unpredictable. For example, a player could have an excellent game one day and go hitless the next. However, by looking at statistics on an annual basis, trends can be identified and investigated. The purpose of this paper is to investigate a purported trend in Major League Baseball that players in their "walk year," meaning that the player is not signed to a contract beyond the end of the current season, will have a "career year" of better than average statistics. The implication is that the player is giving more effort and performing better with their next contract on the line. In order to frame the investigation, only batting performance statistics will be used in this statistical and data mining analysis. Data from 1960 through 2007 will be utilized in this analysis.


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Revised September, 2008