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Activity Number:
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120
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, August 4, 2008 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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IMS
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| Abstract - #300318 |
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Title:
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Detecting Extra-solar Planets with a Bayesian hybrid MCMC Kepler periodogram
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Author(s):
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Phil Gregory*+
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Companies:
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The University of British Columbia
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Address:
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Dept. of Physica & Astronomy, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z1, Canada
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Keywords:
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Extrasolar planets ; Bayesian statistics ; Markov chain Monte Carlo ; Periodogram ; time series
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Abstract:
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A Bayesian re-analysis of published radial velocity data sets is providing evidence for additional planetary candidates. The nonlinear model fitting is accomplished with a new hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC)algorithm which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic crossover operations. Each of these features facilitate the detection of a global minimum in chi squared. By combining all three, the HMCMC greatly increases the probability of realizing this goal. When applied to the Kepler problem it acts as a powerful multi-planet Kepler periodogram for both parameter estimation and model selection. The HMCMC algorithm is embedded in a unique two stage adaptive control system that automates the tuning of the MCMC proposal distributions through an annealing operation.
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