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Activity Number: 367
Type: Topic Contributed
Date/Time: Wednesday, August 1, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Abstract - #310238
Title: A Dempster-Shafer Bayesian Solution to the Banff A1 Challenge
Author(s): Paul Edlefsen*+
Companies: Harvard University
Address: One Oxford Street 7th Floor, Cambridge, MA, 02138,
Keywords: Dempster-Shafer ; Belief Function ; High-Energy Physics ; Particle Physics ; Bayesian Inference ; Higgs Particle

We present a Dempster-Shafer Bayesian solution to the particle physics problem of identifying the Higgs particle. The problem, which involves three Poisson distributions, was presented at the July 2006 BIRS workshop Statistical Inference Problems in High Energy Physics and Astronomy as the "Banff A1 Challenge." The D-S solution is an application of the Poisson Dempster-Shafer Model. It provides a Bayesian posterior that does not require priors on the nuisance parameters. In conjunction with the Plausibility Transform, the D-S Bayesian solution is easy to calculate. The results are impressive, demonstrating the power of the technique.

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