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Activity Number: 116
Type: Contributed
Date/Time: Monday, July 30, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
Sponsor: Social Statistics Section
Abstract - #308131
Title: Life Table Forecasting with the Gompertz Distribution
Author(s): Peter Pflaumer*+
Companies: FH Kempten
Address: Bahnhofstr 61, Kempten, 87435, Germany
Keywords: Mortality Forecasting ; Population Forecasting ; Demographic Forecasting ; Regression
Abstract:

First, this paper investigates the properties of the Gompertz distribution and the relationships of their constants. Then the use of Gompertz´s law to describe mortality is discussed with male and female period life table data of the United States between 1900 and 2000. For this purpose a model incorporating time trends has been formulated with age, time and the product of age and time as independent variables and the force of mortality as the dependent variable. The parameters of the model are estimated using the least squares method. Important life table parameters like expectation of life, modal age, Keyfitz' entropy or old age dependency ratios are forecast up to the year 2100 and compared with recent mortality forecasts of the Social Security Administration. Our model predicts similar results for the male population, but lower mortality for the female population.

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Revised September, 2007