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Activity Number:
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185
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Type:
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Invited
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Date/Time:
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Monday, July 30, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Statistics and the Environment
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| Abstract - #310426 |
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Title:
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Reconstruction of NH Average Temperature by Hierarchical Bayesian Models
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Author(s):
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Bo Li*+ and Douglas Nychka and Caspar Ammann
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Companies:
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National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research and National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Address:
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1300 30th Street Apt B3 24, Boulder, CO, 80303,
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Keywords:
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BHM ; bore-hole ; NH temperature ; tree ring
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Abstract:
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The past temperature is reconstructed based on proxies which are known to preserve the climate evolution. There are many kinds of proxies in term of temporal resolution (i.e., tree rings represent climate information at the interannual to decadal time scale, while bore-hole data record climate signals at multidecadal or longer time scales). We propose to integrate proxies of different time resolution by Hierarchical Bayesian Models (BHM) in reconstructing the past temperature. BHMs are built by three hierarchies which isolate the statistical errors of the proxy data from the underlying temperature process. We produce ensemble reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere (NH) average temperature for the past millennium based on tree ring and borehole based proxies.
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