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Activity Number:
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503
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Type:
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Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Thursday, August 2, 2007 : 8:30 AM to 10:20 AM
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Sponsor:
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Biometrics Section
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| Abstract - #310298 |
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Title:
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Development of a Stochastic Model of Salmon Migration Using Random Effects Models of Recapture Data from Tagged Individuals
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Author(s):
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Steven G. Smith*+ and James R. Faulkner and Richard W. Zabel
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Companies:
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NOAA Fisheries and National Marine Fisheries Service and NOAA Fisheries
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Address:
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NWFSC US Dept. of Commerce, Seattle, WA, 98112,
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Keywords:
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random effects models ; capture-mark-recapture ; stochastic modeling ; fisheries management ; variance components
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Abstract:
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COMPASS (COMPrehensive PASSage) is a new model of the migration of juvenile salmon migrating through the hydroelectrically developed Snake and Columbia rivers of the northwestern United States. Model relationships between environmental conditions and dam operations and the travel time and survival of migrating fish have been developed using data from electronically tagged fish. To use the model as an effective management tool it must generate both predictions about fish response to management actions and measures of uncertainty about those predictions. The underlying tag data vary both spatially as fish move downstream and temporally, both within and across years. The variation has components of both sampling error and process error. We use random effects models to disentangle the sources of variation, so that prospective model predictions appropriately reflect uncertainty.
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