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Activity Number:
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271
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 10:30 AM to 12:20 PM
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Sponsor:
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Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
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| Abstract - #309810 |
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Title:
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Analysis of Seasonal Epidemiological Parameters
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Author(s):
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Ariel Cintron-Arias*+ and Peter Reichert and Alun Lloyd and H. T. Banks
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Companies:
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Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute/North Carolina State University and Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology and North Carolina State University and North Carolina State University
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Address:
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19 TW Alexander Dr, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709-4006,
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Keywords:
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seasons ; communicable diseases ; epidemiology ; effective reproductive number ; disease outbreaks
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Abstract:
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Seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a rather common phenomenon yet the underlying mechanisms have not been fully identified upon analysis of longitudinal observations. In the present study, seasonal epidemics are modeled by a differential equation model with periodic-time dependent transmission rates. Observed year to year variability in outbreak incidence can be explained by chaotic behavior of the solutions of such models or by additional variability in transmission rate parameters in time. To gain insight into possible causes for year to year variability, we investigate the temporal change of the transmission parameter required for a model without chaotic behavior that is required to reproduce measured data. This is compared to an analysis of a model with constant parameters showing chaotic behavior.
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