|
Activity Number:
|
34
|
|
Type:
|
Contributed
|
|
Date/Time:
|
Sunday, July 29, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
|
|
Sponsor:
|
Section on Statistics in Epidemiology
|
| Abstract - #309698 |
|
Title:
|
A Simulation Model for Testing the Effect of Interventions During a Pandemic Influenza Outbreak
|
|
Author(s):
|
Xiaoping Jin*+ and Hong Zhou and William W. Thompson and Po-Yung Cheng and David K. Shay and Michael Haber
|
|
Companies:
|
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Emory University
|
|
Address:
|
1600 Clifton NE, Atlanta, GA, 30333,
|
|
Keywords:
|
pandemic ; influenza ; effectiveness
|
|
Abstract:
|
Pandemic response plans include measures to decrease contact rates between individuals during a pandemic. We used stochastic SIR models to estimate the effectiveness of interventions on pandemic-related illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths. We also compared the effectiveness of allocations of limited vaccine supplies to persons in different age groups. Results suggest that school closings of 1--3 weeks would not substantially affect pandemic-related outcomes. However, if persons who develop symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to withdraw to their homes, then outcome rates might be reduced by ~50%. Preventing ill long-term care facility residents from making contacts with other residents would reduce morbidity and mortality in this group by ~60%. Finally, vaccination of school children was more effective than vaccination of the elderly in reducing pandemic outcomes.
|
