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Activity Number:
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324
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Type:
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Topic Contributed
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Date/Time:
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007 : 2:00 PM to 3:50 PM
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Sponsor:
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ENAR
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| Abstract - #309509 |
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Title:
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On the Bias of Case Counts Adjusted for Reporting Delay
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Author(s):
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Ruiguang Song*+
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Companies:
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
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Address:
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1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, GA, 30333,
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Keywords:
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Adjustment weight ; Bias ; Reporting delay ; Trend analysis
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Abstract:
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To evaluate the trend in HIV diagnoses, the number of reported cases is adjusted for reporting delay to account for those cases recently diagnosed but not yet reported to the HIV case surveillance system. However, this adjustment has been observed to result in a positive bias in the estimated numbers of diagnosed AIDS cases. This bias can be significant in estimating the number of cases diagnosed near the ending date of the reporting period. In this talk, I will present the reason why the adjusted case count is positively biased and how large the bias could be. There are two ways to correct the bias: either by modifying the adjustment weights or by combining the adjustment weights using a double inverse approach. Simulation results on the performance of the proposed methods will be provided. Advantages and disadvantages of each method will be discussed.
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- The address information is for the authors that have a + after their name.
- Authors who are presenting talks have a * after their name.
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